Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.193
- 42.2%Success rate37.5%
- +0.195EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.225
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.1%
- 41.2%Third-down rate29.3%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.90Points / drive1.06
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.092EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. ATL are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:25 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| SF | Q1 8:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q1 6:20 | 10 | 37 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| SF | Q1 1:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| ATL | Q1 0:11 | 12 | 43 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| SF | Q2 9:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–9 |
| ATL | Q2 8:29 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 7–12 |
| SF | Q2 5:38 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–12 |
| ATL | Q2 4:36 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–19 |
| SF | Q2 2:12 | 7 | 38 | Touchdown | 14–19 |
| ATL | Q2 1:07 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 14–22 |
| ATL | Q3 | 2 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–29 |
| SF | Q3 14:06 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–29 |
| ATL | Q3 9:10 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 21–29 |
| SF | Q3 6:25 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–36 |
| ATL | Q3 5:32 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–36 |
| SF | Q3 5:32 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 21–36 |
| ATL | Q3 2:04 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 21–36 |
| SF | Q4 14:07 | 13 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 21–36 |
| ATL | Q4 7:19 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 21–36 |
| SF | Q4 3:56 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 28–36 |
| ATL | Q4 2:50 | 6 | 22 | End of half | 28–36 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 23/36 | 253 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 12 | 72 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 5 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 16/31 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 24 | 77 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 7 | 12 | 148 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26