Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.193
- 42.2%Success rate37.5%
- +0.195EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.225
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.1%
- 41.2%Third-down rate29.3%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.90Points / drive1.06
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.092EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 23/36 | 253 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 12 | 72 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 5 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 16/31 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 24 | 77 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 7 | 12 | 148 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26