Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
48
Model margin
+3.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.086
- 40.9%Success rate42.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.195
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.115
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.5%
- 39.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 37.3%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.90
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed+0.092
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:26 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:04 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:40 | 5 | 83 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| CAR | Q1 1:40 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| SF | Q2 13:23 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–0 |
| CAR | Q2 11:12 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| SF | Q2 8:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–0 |
| CAR | Q2 6:56 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 28–0 |
| SF | Q2 2:16 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 28–0 |
| CAR | Q2 1:11 | 5 | 11 | End of half | 28–0 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 91 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| CAR | Q3 10:40 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 35–7 |
| SF | Q3 6:27 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 35–7 |
| CAR | Q3 5:35 | 4 | 28 | Field goal | 38–7 |
| SF | Q3 4:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 38–7 |
| CAR | Q3 3:22 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 38–7 |
| SF | Q4 14:45 | 9 | 43 | Touchdown | 38–14 |
| CAR | Q4 11:26 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 38–14 |
| SF | Q4 7:50 | 15 | 69 | Turnover on downs | 38–14 |
| CAR | Q4 4:28 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 38–14 |
| SF | Q4 2:43 | 5 | 20 | Touchdown | 38–22 |
| CAR | Q4 1:44 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 38–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 24/32 | 364 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jeff Lewis | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 6 | 7 | 115 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 10 | 108 | 1 |
| Wesley Walls | 5 | 7 | 99 | 1 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 12/20 | 181 | 0 | 1 |
| Rick Mirer | 10/20 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Rick Mirer | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Stokes | 5 | 5 | 98 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
6.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.33