2000 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Cade McNown

0·41

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TB -7

Total

36.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.144EPA / play-0.016
  • 38.4%Success rate39.8%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.086
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 35.6%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 0.80Points / drive1.46
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.114

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TB
TBQ1 15:003-11Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:48619Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:2135Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:525-1Turnover0–0
TBQ1 6:12513Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 4:0233Punt0–0
TBQ1 2:04420Punt0–0
CHIQ1 0:1528Turnover0–0
TBQ2 14:53725Field goal0–3
CHIQ2 10:2837Punt0–3
TBQ2 8:411039Field goal0–6
CHIQ2 2:4620Turnover0–6
TBQ2 2:2034Touchdown0–13
CHIQ2 1:5425Opp touchdown0–20
TBQ2 1:1700Opp touchdown0–20
CHIQ2 1:1739End of half0–20
CHIQ3 15:00516Punt0–20
TBQ3 12:461085Touchdown0–27
CHIQ3 8:2730Punt0–33
TBQ3 7:46158Touchdown0–34
CHIQ3 7:33313Punt0–34
TBQ3 5:5236Punt0–34
CHIQ3 4:09515Punt0–34
TBQ3 0:351056Touchdown0–41
CHIQ4 10:16749Missed field goal0–41
TBQ4 6:26727Punt0–41
CHIQ4 1:50722End of half0–41

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cade McNown15/299602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cade McNown5499.80
James Allen6477.80
Curtis Enis11201.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson28250
Macey Brooks22190
Dez White22150
James Allen35140
Bobby Engram47100
Alonzo Mayes1180
Eddie Kennison1150
Marty Booker0100
Dustin Lyman0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King10/2116720
Eric Zeier3/31900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn14533.80
Aaron Stecker5265.20
Shaun King263.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacquez Green571041
Keyshawn Johnson25321
Karl Williams11270
Patrick Hape12130
Warrick Dunn2350
Todd Yoder1110
Reidel Anthony0100
Dave Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.30