2000 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.144EPA / play-0.016
- 38.4%Success rate39.8%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.086
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- 29.8%Third-down rate33.9%
- 35.6%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 0.80Points / drive1.46
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.114
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 15/29 | 96 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| James Allen | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| James Allen | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 4 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dustin Lyman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 10/21 | 167 | 2 | 0 |
| Eric Zeier | 3/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 5 | 7 | 104 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.30