Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.217EPA / play-0.157
- 31.8%Success rate34.1%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.180
- -0.234EPA / rush-0.129
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- 28.6%Third-down rate34.8%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
- 0.78Points / drive0.82
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 19/31 | 259 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Tim Couch | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 3 | 5 | 95 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 15/43 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| Marco Battaglia | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.12
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.29