2000 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

24·7

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.217EPA / play-0.157
  • 31.8%Success rate34.1%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback-0.180
  • -0.234EPA / rush-0.129
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 28.6%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
  • 0.78Points / drive0.82
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:00574Turnover on downs0–0
CINQ1 12:14633Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:0932Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:1734Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:24866Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 3:431088Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 14:33315Punt7–7
CLEQ2 12:57416Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 11:20618Missed field goal14–7
CLEQ2 9:123-5Punt14–7
CINQ2 8:3253Punt14–7
CLEQ2 5:59515Punt14–7
CINQ2 3:5230Punt14–7
CLEQ2 3:23829Turnover14–7
CINQ3 15:0033Punt14–7
CLEQ3 13:231160Field goal17–7
CINQ3 6:291354Turnover17–7
CLEQ3 2:081185Touchdown24–7
CINQ4 11:47955Turnover24–7
CLEQ4 8:5236Punt24–7
CINQ4 7:213-5Punt24–7
CLEQ4 6:363-4Punt24–7
CINQ4 4:39956Turnover on downs24–7
CLEQ4 2:063-5Punt24–7
CINQ4 0:2819End of half24–7

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch19/3125921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett20532.60
Travis Prentice8465.81
Tim Couch471.80
Dennis Northcutt1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Patten35950
Kevin Johnson58590
Aaron Shea11300
Darrin Chiaverini11180
JaJuan Dawson37140
Dennis Northcutt11120
Errict Rhett22110
Travis Prentice11100
Mark Campbell1251

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Akili Smith15/4325012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon12413.40
Akili Smith22613.00
Nicolas Luchey199.00
Peter Warrick188.00
Brandon Bennett252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peter Warrick38800
Corey Dillon23460
Craig Yeast25380
Tony McGee14340
Brandon Bennett22300
Ron Dugans27101
Marco Battaglia0300
Damon Griffin0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.12
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.29