Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.126
- 41.5%Success rate39.0%
- -0.085EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.243
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 36.8%Third-down rate36.7%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.35Points / drive1.04
- 3.7%Turnover rate4.0%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 30 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 9:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 6:57 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 7–3 |
| DAL | Q1 4:34 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 4:34 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| DAL | Q1 2:25 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 1:40 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 12:05 | 5 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q2 9:04 | 3 | -17 | Punt | 14–10 |
| DAL | Q2 6:55 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| ARI | Q2 0:26 | 4 | 44 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 41 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| ARI | Q3 8:16 | 11 | 43 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| DAL | Q3 2:34 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| ARI | Q3 2:15 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 24–23 |
| DAL | Q3 0:12 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 31–23 |
| ARI | Q4 8:53 | 8 | 25 | Field goal | 31–26 |
| DAL | Q4 5:17 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 31–26 |
| ARI | Q4 4:03 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 31–32 |
| DAL | Q4 1:54 | 9 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 31–32 |
| ARI | Q4 0:10 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 31–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 24/34 | 243 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 5 | 8 | 86 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 5 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 7 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/24 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 70 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 7 | 102 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 7 | 56 | 2 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.93