2000 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

36·39

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRavens
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.056
  • 41.4%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.066EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.052
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 42.8%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.45
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.217

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BAL
JAXQ1 15:00743Field goal3–0
BALQ1 11:1539Punt3–0
JAXQ1 9:21541Touchdown10–0
BALQ1 7:4959Punt10–0
JAXQ1 5:19663Touchdown17–0
BALQ1 2:32412Punt17–0
JAXQ1 0:0425Turnover17–6
BALQ2 14:54114Touchdown17–7
JAXQ2 14:4837Punt17–7
BALQ2 13:39642Punt17–7
JAXQ2 10:161368Field goal20–7
BALQ2 3:363-1Punt20–7
JAXQ2 1:42630Field goal23–7
BALQ2 0:4449Turnover23–7
BALQ3 15:00468Touchdown23–15
JAXQ3 13:3130Punt23–15
BALQ3 12:173-1Turnover23–15
JAXQ3 11:411029Field goal26–15
BALQ3 6:471271Touchdown26–22
JAXQ3 1:0230Punt26–22
BALQ4 14:5363Punt26–22
JAXQ4 10:5724Turnover26–22
BALQ4 10:09212Touchdown26–29
JAXQ4 10:00323Turnover26–29
BALQ4 8:2839Field goal26–32
JAXQ4 7:00851Field goal29–32
BALQ4 3:5330Punt29–32
JAXQ4 2:42461Touchdown36–32
BALQ4 1:45675Touchdown36–39
JAXQ4 0:414-4Turnover36–39

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell28/5038632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stacey Mack11363.30
Chris Howard870.90
Mark Brunell231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith15212913
Keenan McCardell79610
Chris Howard23130
Kyle Brady23120
R.Jay Soward2990

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks23/4026252

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes10545.40
Jermaine Lewis12323.00
Jamal Lewis571.40
Tony Banks252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor46802
Obafemi Ayanbadejo78531
Shannon Sharpe37501
Billy Davis23340
Jermaine Lewis36271
Priest Holmes48180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.18