Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.056
- 41.4%Success rate40.2%
- +0.066EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- 42.8%Third-down rate40.7%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
- 1.87Points / drive1.45
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.217
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 28/50 | 386 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Howard | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 15 | 21 | 291 | 3 |
| Keenan McCardell | 7 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Chris Howard | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 23/40 | 262 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 6 | 80 | 2 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 7 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Billy Davis | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 4 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.18