2000 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

19·20

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.073
  • 38.3%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.161
  • 5.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.29
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.5%
  • +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.101

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:09630Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 9:511274Touchdown3–7
NEQ1 3:481262Field goal6–7
NYJQ2 12:2310Turnover6–7
NEQ2 12:0432Field goal9–7
NYJQ2 11:1333Punt9–7
NEQ2 10:00824Punt9–7
NYJQ2 6:4440Punt9–7
NEQ2 5:49619Field goal12–7
NYJQ2 2:45423Punt12–7
NEQ2 1:3733Punt12–7
NYJQ2 1:04836End of half12–7
NEQ3 15:001263Missed field goal12–7
NYJQ3 9:14530Punt12–7
NEQ3 6:09620Punt12–7
NYJQ3 2:073-5Punt12–7
NEQ3 1:131472Touchdown19–7
NYJQ4 9:561093Touchdown19–14
NEQ4 6:251012Punt19–14
NYJQ4 2:28272Touchdown19–20
NEQ4 1:554-14Turnover on downs19–20
NYJQ4 1:241-2End of half19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe25/4322910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk21823.90
Drew Bledsoe3103.30
Tony Carter273.50
Michael Bishop122.00
J.R. Redmond520.40
Terry Glenn1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn612810
Eric Bjornson610391
Troy Brown44270
Kevin Faulk45230
Chris Calloway11220
Tony Carter24110
Tony Simmons1250
Shockmain Davis0100
J.R. Redmond0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde16/3728131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin11474.30
Windrell Hayes122.00
Vinny Testaverde300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dedric Ward481000
Wayne Chrebet47712
Vincent Brisby14180
Fred Baxter1341
Curtis Martin0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.95