Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.073
- 38.3%Success rate39.6%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.161
- 5.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.1%Third-down rate37.5%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.30Points / drive1.29
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.5%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.101
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 25/43 | 229 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Michael Bishop | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 6 | 12 | 81 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 6 | 10 | 39 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Shockmain Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 16/37 | 281 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Windrell Hayes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedric Ward | 4 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 7 | 71 | 2 |
| Vincent Brisby | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.95