Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.003
- 40.1%Success rate40.3%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.9%Third-down rate41.3%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.73Points / drive1.62
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/29 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 11 | 96 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 21 | 50 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 8 | 11 | 84 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 7 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/33 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.00