Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.003
- 40.1%Success rate40.3%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.9%Third-down rate41.3%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.73Points / drive1.62
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:19 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 4:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 2:25 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| PHI | Q2 11:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–0 |
| NYG | Q2 10:07 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 6–0 |
| PHI | Q2 8:17 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| NYG | Q2 5:22 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| PHI | Q2 1:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–3 |
| NYG | Q2 0:35 | 3 | 42 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| PHI | Q2 0:14 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 20–3 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 39 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| NYG | Q3 9:09 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 27–6 |
| PHI | Q3 4:01 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 27–12 |
| NYG | Q3 0:56 | 1 | 1 | — | 27–12 |
| NYG | Q4 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 27–12 |
| NYG | Q4 15:00 | 9 | 27 | Field goal | 30–12 |
| PHI | Q4 8:40 | 6 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 30–12 |
| NYG | Q4 6:50 | 4 | 30 | Field goal | 33–12 |
| PHI | Q4 3:59 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 33–18 |
| NYG | Q4 1:22 | 3 | -4 | End of half | 33–18 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/29 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 11 | 96 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 21 | 50 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 8 | 11 | 84 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 7 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/33 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.00