Closing spread
STL -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/31 | 245 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 6 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 2 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Derrick Mayes | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| James Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.