2000 · Week 2
Final
Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
WAS -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.143
- 41.1%Success rate36.6%
- +0.058EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.146
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- 39.0%Third-down rate31.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 1.30Points / drive1.23
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 65 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 8:54 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 5:30 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 4:21 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DET | Q2 14:44 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| WAS | Q2 13:13 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| DET | Q2 4:30 | 9 | 44 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| WAS | Q2 0:52 | 5 | 18 | End of half | 7–6 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 7–6 |
| DET | Q3 10:07 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| WAS | Q3 6:35 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| DET | Q3 2:04 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 10–12 |
| WAS | Q4 11:36 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–12 |
| DET | Q4 11:13 | 11 | 45 | Field goal | 10–15 |
| WAS | Q4 6:24 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–15 |
| DET | Q4 4:10 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 10–15 |
| WAS | Q4 3:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–15 |
| DET | Q4 3:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–15 |
| WAS | Q4 1:59 | 6 | 52 | Turnover | 10–15 |
| DET | Q4 0:49 | 2 | -3 | End of half | 10–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 23/35 | 245 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 16/31 | 194 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45