2000 · Week 2
Final
Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
WAS -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.143
- 41.1%Success rate36.6%
- +0.058EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.146
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- 39.0%Third-down rate31.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 1.30Points / drive1.23
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 23/35 | 245 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 16/31 | 194 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45