Closing spread
CAR -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.193EPA / play-0.057
- 37.5%Success rate40.9%
- -0.176EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.120
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- 29.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate37.3%
- 1.06Points / drive1.31
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 21/27 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 5 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 21/37 | 241 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 5 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.10