2000 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

15·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -6

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.193EPA / play-0.057
  • 37.5%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.176EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.225EPA / rush-0.120
  • 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate37.3%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.31
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.020

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:48315Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 11:1437Field goal3–0
CARQ1 9:04851Missed field goal3–0
ATLQ1 4:2434Punt3–0
ATLQ1 2:4336Missed field goal3–0
CARQ1 1:1538Punt3–0
ATLQ2 14:13677Touchdown10–0
CARQ2 10:571365Field goal10–3
ATLQ2 4:2233Punt10–3
CARQ2 1:51950Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 0:15124End of half10–10
CARQ3 15:0035Punt10–10
ATLQ3 13:346-10Missed field goal10–10
CARQ3 9:5835Punt10–10
ATLQ3 8:27518Turnover10–10
CARQ3 5:5247—10–10
ATLQ3 4:2235Punt10–10
CARQ3 3:26519Punt10–10
ATLQ3 0:40625Punt10–10
CARQ4 11:15410Punt10–10
ATLQ4 10:2338Punt10–10
CARQ4 9:22213Turnover10–10
ATLQ4 8:39730Field goal13–10
CARQ4 4:10336Turnover13–10
ATLQ4 2:39349Safety15–10
ATLQ4 2:1200End of half15–10

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler21/2717400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Anderson22974.41
Chris Chandler640.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shawn Jefferson55770
Terance Mathis55420
Brian Finneran35170
Jamal Anderson22120
Reggie Kelly0100
Brian Kozlowski0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein21/3724112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka12453.80
Steve Beuerlein4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Hayes47690
Tim Biakabutuka58620
Wesley Walls36450
Muhsin Muhammad58341
Kris Mangum22160
Isaac Byrd1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.10