Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.033
- 40.2%Success rate38.4%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- 40.7%Third-down rate34.3%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.45Points / drive1.52
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 19/31 | 189 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 11/16 | 160 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 22 | 63 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Thurman Thomas | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 3 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.37