2000 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

6·19

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -1.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • -0.056EPA / play-0.033
  • 40.2%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 36.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.52
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.111

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
BALQ1 15:0084Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:241042Field goal0–3
BALQ1 4:5534Punt0–3
MIAQ1 2:23920Field goal0–6
BALQ2 12:373-8Punt0–6
MIAQ2 11:10626Punt0–6
BALQ2 8:00520Punt0–6
MIAQ2 6:013-7Turnover0–6
BALQ2 4:4820Turnover0–6
MIAQ2 4:2839Punt0–6
BALQ2 2:07668Missed field goal0–6
MIAQ3 15:00561Touchdown0–13
BALQ3 11:471267Field goal3–13
MIAQ3 3:13880Touchdown3–19
BALQ4 13:15740Field goal6–19
MIAQ4 9:35311Punt6–19
BALQ4 6:411167Turnover on downs6–19
MIAQ4 2:07716End of half6–19

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks19/3118901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis9768.40
Priest Holmes6254.20
Tony Banks2115.50
Obafemi Ayanbadejo166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe510560
Obafemi Ayanbadejo45490
Pat Johnson23230
Jamal Lewis22220
Priest Holmes23180
Ben Coates23110
Travis Taylor24100
Jermaine Lewis0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler11/1616011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith22632.91
Thurman Thomas3258.30
J.J. Johnson5102.00
Jay Fiedler482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lamar Smith33471
Jed Weaver11410
Thurman Thomas34310
Leslie Shepherd34300
Oronde Gadsden11110
Bert Emanuel0100
Hunter Goodwin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.37