2000 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

0·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -13

Total

41

Model margin

+6.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.157EPA / play+0.010
  • 34.1%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.180EPA / dropback+0.066
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 34.8%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 34.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.87
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. JAX are 9-7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:01410Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:13859Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 7:1400Field goal0–7
JAXQ1 7:0335Field goal0–10
CINQ1 5:37512Punt0–10
JAXQ1 3:13920Punt0–10
CINQ2 13:411032Missed field goal0–10
JAXQ2 8:591264Turnover on downs0–10
CINQ2 3:053-1Punt0–10
JAXQ2 1:553-4Punt0–10
CINQ2 1:23741Missed field goal0–10
CINQ3 15:0032Punt0–10
JAXQ3 13:5837Punt0–10
CINQ3 12:43530Turnover0–10
JAXQ3 10:50834Missed field goal0–10
CINQ3 6:3145Turnover0–10
JAXQ3 4:2547Turnover0–10
CINQ3 3:07522Punt0–10
JAXQ3 1:113-5Punt0–10
CINQ3 0:0036Punt0–10
JAXQ4 13:13530Punt0–10
CINQ4 11:261035Punt0–10
JAXQ4 6:5332Punt0–10
CINQ4 5:23611Turnover0–10
JAXQ4 3:13414Field goal0–13
CINQ4 1:45828Turnover on downs0–13
JAXQ4 0:191-1End of half0–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Akili Smith18/4118302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Akili Smith5346.80
Corey Dillon17321.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peter Warrick511750
Corey Dillon46340
Craig Yeast35310
Tony McGee37230
Ron Dugans26180
Marco Battaglia0100
Damon Griffin0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell20/3217611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stacey Mack20351.80
Mark Brunell5255.00
R.Jay Soward12020.00
Chad Dukes221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell10141081
Jimmy Smith610410
Kyle Brady46270
R.Jay Soward0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.74