Closing spread
JAX -13
Total
41
Model margin
+6.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.157EPA / play+0.010
- 34.1%Success rate41.4%
- -0.180EPA / dropback+0.066
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.8%Third-down rate42.8%
- 34.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 0.82Points / drive1.87
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 8-7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 18/41 | 183 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 17 | 32 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 5 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 20/32 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 20 | 35 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Chad Dukes | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 10 | 14 | 108 | 1 |
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.74