2000 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Randall Cunningham

27·21

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

WAS -10.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.027
  • 41.5%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.085EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • 36.8%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.30
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.093

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:18512Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:13633Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 8:13521Punt0–7
WASQ1 5:10516Punt6–7
DALQ1 2:42176Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 2:32622Turnover7–7
DALQ2 14:54944Touchdown14–7
WASQ2 10:45924Punt14–7
DALQ2 5:3666Punt14–7
WASQ2 3:11931Punt14–7
DALQ2 0:50210End of half14–7
DALQ3 15:001035Field goal17–7
WASQ3 9:41619Punt17–7
DALQ3 7:1010Turnover17–7
WASQ3 7:05523Touchdown17–14
DALQ3 4:37318Turnover17–14
WASQ3 2:54519Punt17–14
DALQ3 0:23422Punt17–14
WASQ4 14:01526Punt17–14
DALQ4 11:38579Touchdown24–14
WASQ4 9:19964Touchdown24–21
DALQ4 5:3437Punt24–21
WASQ4 4:33621Turnover24–21
DALQ4 2:0932Field goal27–21
WASQ4 1:46929End of half27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Randall Cunningham10/2318521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith24833.51
Randall Cunningham33210.70
Raghib Ismail23015.00
Chris Warren284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Warren34861
Raghib Ismail35650
Jackie Harris23281
James McKnight1460
David LaFleur0300
Emmitt Smith1200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson30/4824111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis25913.62
Adrian Murrell133.00
Brad Johnson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stephen Davis57540
Adrian Murrell89480
Irving Fryar69470
James Thrash34210
Albert Connell25200
Stephen Alexander15150
Andre Reed1190
Mike Sellers1171

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.47