2000 · Week 3 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.027
- 41.5%Success rate41.1%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- 36.8%Third-down rate39.0%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.35Points / drive1.30
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.093
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 10/23 | 185 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 24 | 83 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Randall Cunningham | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warren | 3 | 4 | 86 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 30/48 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 25 | 91 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 8 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.47