Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
40
Model margin
-0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.051
- 42.1%Success rate40.0%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.6%
- 42.9%Third-down rate40.9%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate52.9%
- 1.53Points / drive1.33
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.071EPA / play allowed+0.074
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 14/24 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 7 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 1 | 49 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/29 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| James Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Karsten Bailey | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22