2000 · Week 3

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

14·7

Bears

Chicago

QB Cade McNown

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -2

Total

42

Model margin

-0.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBears
  • +0.016EPA / play-0.144
  • 40.1%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.156
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.1%
  • 39.9%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
  • 1.73Points / drive0.80
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.018

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CHI
NYGQ1 15:00880Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 10:38525Punt7–0
NYGQ1 7:49942Punt7–0
CHIQ1 2:47848Missed field goal7–0
NYGQ2 14:101044Missed field goal7–0
CHIQ2 8:57421Punt7–0
NYGQ2 7:10846Missed field goal7–0
CHIQ2 3:161274Touchdown7–7
NYGQ2 0:14216End of half7–7
CHIQ3 15:00419Punt7–7
NYGQ3 13:21742Punt7–7
CHIQ3 9:033-8Punt7–7
NYGQ3 8:16643Touchdown14–7
CHIQ3 5:263-1Punt14–7
NYGQ3 4:13736—14–7
NYGQ400Turnover14–7
NYGQ4 15:00113Turnover14–7
CHIQ4 14:52613Punt14–7
NYGQ4 12:0436Punt14–7
CHIQ4 10:36629Punt14–7
NYGQ4 7:281142Punt14–7
CHIQ4 2:5810Turnover14–7
NYGQ4 2:4830Missed field goal14–7
CHIQ4 1:0848Turnover on downs14–7
NYGQ4 0:191-1End of half14–7

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins24/3325110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber17865.11
Ron Dayne19693.60
Ron Dixon11212.00
Greg Comella144.00
Kerry Collins310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tiki Barber68580
Ike Hilliard47540
Ron Dixon11341
Greg Comella45310
Amani Toomer58260
Howard Cross11180
Pete Mitchell22170
Dan Campbell11130

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cade McNown23/3620210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen10313.10
Curtis Enis5132.60
Cade McNown242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson914840
Bobby Engram44380
Macey Brooks36260
Curtis Enis33260
John Allred11180
James Allen1380
Eddie Kennison1221
Alonzo Mayes0100
Dez White1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.33