Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
42
Model margin
-0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.144
- 40.1%Success rate38.4%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.156
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.1%
- 39.9%Third-down rate29.8%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
- 1.73Points / drive0.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 24/33 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Greg Comella | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 23/36 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 9 | 14 | 84 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.33