Closing spread
GB -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.010
- 40.3%Success rate40.2%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 41.3%Third-down rate38.8%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.62Points / drive1.67
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/31 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 8 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Dyke | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/33 | 189 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 24 | 74 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.38