Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.217
- 38.6%Success rate31.8%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.234
- 8.9%Explosive rate5.5%
- 37.4%Third-down rate28.6%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.37Points / drive0.78
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.119EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 13/27 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 24 | 133 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 5 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 23/31 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 4 | 97 | 0 |
| David Patten | 3 | 4 | 81 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 5 | 11 | 26 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+6.23
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.24