2000 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kent Graham

20·23

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.044EPA / play-0.217
  • 38.6%Success rate31.8%
  • -0.014EPA / dropback-0.208
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.234
  • 8.9%Explosive rate5.5%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate28.6%
  • 49.8%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.37Points / drive0.78
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.119EPA / play allowed+0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00762Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 10:3448Punt0–7
CLEQ1 7:35761Touchdown0–14
PITQ1 3:351261Touchdown7–14
CLEQ2 13:34620Punt7–14
PITQ2 10:22945Punt7–14
CLEQ2 6:3434Punt7–14
PITQ2 4:44714Field goal10–14
CLEQ2 1:4439Punt10–14
PITQ2 0:3710End of half10–14
PITQ3 15:00429Field goal13–14
CLEQ3 12:39630Field goal13–17
PITQ3 10:12880Touchdown20–17
CLEQ3 5:4720Turnover20–17
PITQ3 5:4723Turnover20–17
CLEQ3 4:4139Punt20–17
PITQ3 2:133-4Punt20–17
CLEQ3 0:55234—20–17
CLEQ400Field goal20–17
CLEQ4 15:00853Field goal20–20
PITQ4 10:49941Punt20–20
CLEQ4 6:57795Field goal20–23
PITQ4 2:45959End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham13/2717200
Kordell Stewart1/1900
Jerome Bettis0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis241335.51
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala22211.00
Kent Graham177.00
Richard Huntley362.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward510750
Bobby Shaw34660
Plaxico Burress14100
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala2380
Mark Bruener1250
Richard Huntley0100
Malcolm Johnson0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch23/3131620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett18553.10
Tim Couch133.00
Travis Prentice430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson44970
David Patten34810
Aaron Shea45431
Dennis Northcutt22270
Darrin Chiaverini511260
Errict Rhett22110
Travis Prentice22100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+6.23
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.24