Closing spread
STL -17
Total
55.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| SF | Q1 14:35 | 1 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:29 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| SF | Q1 11:00 | 6 | 50 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 6:36 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SF | Q1 3:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:13 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SF | Q1 0:00 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 10:45 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SF | Q2 9:02 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 8:06 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 5:09 | 5 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LA | Q2 2:14 | 1 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| SF | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| LA | Q2 1:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| SF | Q2 1:05 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LA | Q3 13:31 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| SF | Q3 8:28 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 17–24 |
| LA | Q3 4:51 | 9 | 95 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| SF | Q4 14:57 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| LA | Q4 12:02 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| SF | Q4 7:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–34 |
| LA | Q4 6:27 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 24–41 |
| SF | Q4 1:42 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 24–41 |
| LA | Q4 0:38 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/34 | 290 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 15 | 87 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 11 | 108 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.