2000 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.143
- 39.8%Success rate36.6%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.146
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.7%
- 33.9%Third-down rate31.8%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 1.46Points / drive1.23
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 18/30 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Shaun King | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Eric Zeier | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 8 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 26/36 | 277 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 6 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Brock Olivo | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Alfred Pupunu | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19