Closing spread
BAL -11.5
Total
38
Model margin
+7.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.157EPA / play-0.056
- 34.1%Success rate40.2%
- -0.180EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- 34.8%Third-down rate40.7%
- 34.6%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
- 0.82Points / drive1.45
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.217
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mitchell | 14/23 | 97 | 0 | 2 |
| Akili Smith | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 12 | 9 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 20/36 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 25 | 116 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 8 | 32 | 1 |
| Jamal Lewis | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.36