Closing spread
OAK -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 16/29 | 141 | 1 | 2 |
| Spergon Wynn | 2/5 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 2 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Errict Rhett | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.