2000 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

21·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Cade McNown

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.143EPA / play-0.144
  • 36.6%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.141EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.156
  • 6.7%Explosive rate6.1%
  • 31.8%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 47.8%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
  • 1.23Points / drive0.80
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.018

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00521Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:1233Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:47417Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:36759Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 6:3039Punt7–0
DETQ1 4:48613Punt7–0
CHIQ1 1:38536Punt7–0
DETQ2 14:1839Punt7–0
CHIQ2 12:48419Punt7–0
DETQ2 10:3133Punt7–0
CHIQ2 9:36436Turnover7–0
DETQ2 7:5035Punt7–0
CHIQ2 6:1810Turnover7–0
DETQ2 6:08523Punt7–0
CHIQ2 3:03634Punt7–0
DETQ2 1:04457Touchdown14–0
CHIQ2 0:181-1End of half14–0
DETQ3 15:0036Punt14–0
CHIQ3 13:2426Turnover14–0
DETQ3 12:463-2Missed field goal14–0
CHIQ3 11:17793Touchdown14–7
DETQ3 8:4030Punt14–7
CHIQ3 8:07524Turnover14–7
DETQ3 6:2920Turnover14–7
CHIQ3 6:17650Touchdown14–14
DETQ3 3:131786Touchdown21–14
CHIQ4 9:36516Turnover21–14
DETQ4 7:0439Punt21–14
CHIQ4 4:43829Turnover on downs21–14
DETQ4 1:5134Punt21–14
CHIQ4 0:46512Turnover on downs21–14
DETQ4 0:161-1End of half21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch20/3720721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart23713.11
Mario Bates273.50
Charlie Batch420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germane Crowell25651
Johnnie Morton58551
James Stewart56250
David Sloan34230
Herman Moore25210
Sedrick Irvin24140
Desmond Howard1140
Walter Rasby0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cade McNown21/3526113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen19874.60
Cade McNown10525.21
Curtis Enis155.00
Marlon Barnes133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson511971
Marty Booker58560
Eddie Kennison56350
John Allred13250
Alonzo Mayes22250
Macey Brooks23150
James Allen1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.20