Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play-0.144
- 36.6%Success rate38.4%
- -0.141EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.156
- 6.7%Explosive rate6.1%
- 31.8%Third-down rate29.8%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
- 1.23Points / drive0.80
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 20/37 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 23 | 71 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Mario Bates | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 2 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 21/35 | 261 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 19 | 87 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marlon Barnes | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 5 | 11 | 97 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.20