Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
42
Model margin
-0.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.126
- 40.2%Success rate39.0%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.243
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 38.8%Third-down rate36.7%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.67Points / drive1.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
- -0.033EPA / play allowed+0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/31 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 12 | 93 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Herbert Goodman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 8 | 94 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 21/43 | 189 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 7 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| David Boston | 3 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.94