2000 · Week 4

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

29·3

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

ARI -1

Total

42

Model margin

-0.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.010EPA / play-0.126
  • 40.2%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.243
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 53.5%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.04
  • 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
  • -0.033EPA / play allowed+0.104

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0058Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:02513Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:0635Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:40880Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 4:36622Punt7–0
GBQ1 1:05585Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 14:05941Field goal14–3
GBQ2 8:481066Field goal17–3
ARIQ2 2:063-5Punt17–3
GBQ2 1:11415Punt17–3
ARIQ2 0:15415Turnover17–3
GBQ3 15:001047Field goal20–3
ARIQ3 8:47616Punt20–3
GBQ3 6:501041Field goal23–3
ARIQ3 0:4925—23–3
ARIQ400Punt23–3
ARIQ4 15:0012Punt23–3
GBQ4 14:12964Field goal26–3
ARIQ4 9:3320Turnover26–3
GBQ4 9:1130Field goal29–3
ARIQ4 8:53963Turnover29–3
GBQ4 5:45645Turnover29–3
ARIQ4 2:22837Turnover29–3
GBQ4 0:161-1End of half29–3

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre17/3127710
Matt Hasselbeck1/11100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green12937.81
Dorsey Levens17422.50
Brett Favre4389.50
Herbert Goodman242.00
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bill Schroeder48941
Ahman Green23490
Bubba Franks34340
Donald Driver33270
Tyrone Davis24220
Antonio Freeman16200
Dorsey Levens12190
Charles Lee11110

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer21/4318904

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones10242.40
Michael Pittman341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders711600
Mac Cody35440
Michael Pittman46430
David Boston39230
Terry Hardy12110
MarTay Jenkins1350
Thomas Jones2530

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.94