2000 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

14·43

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.123
  • 41.4%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.066EPA / dropback+0.249
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 42.8%Third-down rate46.8%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.04
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.022EPA / play allowed+0.005

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
JAXQ1 15:00638Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:30389Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:59313Punt0–7
INDQ1 8:5539Punt0–7
JAXQ1 6:44538Punt0–7
INDQ1 4:06734Punt0–7
JAXQ2 14:52840Punt0–7
INDQ2 9:4731Punt0–7
JAXQ2 8:46521Touchdown7–7
INDQ2 7:3637Punt7–7
JAXQ2 6:1010Turnover7–7
INDQ2 6:02326Touchdown7–14
JAXQ2 5:0949Punt7–14
INDQ2 2:41472Touchdown7–21
JAXQ2 1:28775Touchdown14–21
INDQ2 0:111-1End of half14–21
INDQ3 15:00426Turnover14–21
JAXQ3 12:5437Punt14–21
INDQ3 11:301082Field goal14–24
JAXQ3 5:3235Punt14–24
INDQ3 4:01517Punt14–24
JAXQ3 1:572-14Safety14–26
INDQ3 1:10958Field goal14–29
JAXQ4 11:313-12Punt14–29
INDQ4 10:58672Touchdown14–36
JAXQ4 8:423-13Punt14–36
INDQ4 7:24343Touchdown14–43
JAXQ4 5:551579Turnover14–43
INDQ4 1:102-2End of half14–43

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell21/3622922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor14574.10
Mark Brunell6355.80
Anthony Johnson242.00
R.Jay Soward100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith9131322
Keenan McCardell47480
R.Jay Soward23200
Kyle Brady25120
Anthony Johnson3390
Alvis Whitted1180
Greg DeLong0100
Fred Taylor0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning23/3644040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James22894.01
Peyton Manning640.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrence Wilkins9111481
Marvin Harrison251031
Jerome Pathon34671
Edgerrin James24650
Ken Dilger59381
Marcus Pollard22190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.81