Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.123
- 41.4%Success rate45.8%
- +0.066EPA / dropback+0.249
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- 42.8%Third-down rate46.8%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.87Points / drive2.04
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed+0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 21/36 | 229 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 9 | 13 | 132 | 2 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/36 | 440 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 89 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Wilkins | 9 | 11 | 148 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 2 | 5 | 103 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 5 | 9 | 38 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.81