Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
43
Model margin
-1.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.086
- 41.2%Success rate45.4%
- +0.123EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.025
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- 36.7%Third-down rate44.1%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.42Points / drive1.79
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.025EPA / play allowed-0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 21/33 | 250 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Moreau | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 10 | 10 | 127 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 2 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 18/31 | 208 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Terrell Davis | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 12 | 134 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.06