Closing spread
MIA -4.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.033
- 38.3%Success rate38.4%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.150
- 5.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.1%Third-down rate34.3%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.30Points / drive1.52
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 30–25 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:40 | 7 | 55 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 4:31 | 11 | 43 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 14:43 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 11:30 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 8:31 | 4 | 28 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 6:16 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 3:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 2:03 | 6 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 1:06 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:07 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q3 14:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q3 12:27 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q3 9:03 | 8 | 20 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| NE | Q3 6:10 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q3 4:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q3 0:38 | 9 | 29 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q4 10:18 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q4 8:13 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q4 6:07 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q4 3:52 | 8 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q4 1:04 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 3–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 16/33 | 161 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 21 | 46 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 5 | 13 | 65 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 12/24 | 153 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 20 | 42 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 2 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Perry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59