Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
38
Model margin
+1.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play+0.008
- 40.3%Success rate42.1%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- 41.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.62Points / drive1.53
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.071
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 12:36 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:29 | 5 | 16 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 7:44 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 5:51 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 3:03 | 11 | 98 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 13:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| PHI | Q2 13:00 | 1 | 21 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 12:55 | 13 | 53 | Punt | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q2 6:18 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 3:58 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q2 1:53 | 10 | 42 | Punt | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 13:57 | 7 | 44 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q3 9:45 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q3 5:27 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q3 4:02 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–7 |
| NO | Q3 4:02 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q3 1:22 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NO | Q4 13:39 | 4 | -9 | Punt | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q4 12:43 | 7 | 37 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| NO | Q4 9:08 | 5 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q4 7:04 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 21–7 |
| NO | Q4 3:12 | 11 | 39 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q4 0:53 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 21–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 20/32 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 5 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 3 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Luther Broughton | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/38 | 163 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reed | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.71