Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
36
Model margin
+4.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SD are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 11/21 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | 2 | 68 | 1 |
| Itula Mili | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Karsten Bailey | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.