2000 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

20·12

Chargers

San Diego

QB Ryan Leaf

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

36

Model margin

+4.5est.

SD perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SD are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LAC @ SEA23–30SEA
2022 · W7SEA @ LAC37–23SEA
2018 · W9LAC @ SEA25–17CHARGERS
2014 · W2SEA @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2010 · W3SD @ SEA20–27SEA
2006 · W16SD @ SEA20–17CHARGERS
2002 · W17SEA @ SD31–28SEA
2001 · W16SEA @ SD25–22SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SD
SEAQ1 15:001153Field goal3–0
LACQ1 10:051059Field goal3–3
SEAQ1 3:3700Field goal3–3
LACQ1 3:23411Field goal3–6
SEAQ1 1:04268Touchdown10–6
LACQ1 0:0536Punt10–6
SEAQ2 13:2746Punt10–6
LACQ2 11:12411Punt10–6
SEAQ2 10:14614Punt10–6
LACQ2 7:4333Punt10–6
LACQ2 6:37622Field goal10–9
SEAQ2 3:561065Field goal13–9
LACQ2 0:36326Field goal13–12
LACQ3 15:00418Punt13–12
SEAQ3 13:003-12Punt13–12
LACQ3 11:07838Opp touchdown20–12
SEAQ3 6:5000Opp touchdown20–12
LACQ3 6:50511Punt20–12
SEAQ3 3:53526Punt20–12
LACQ3 1:03712Punt20–12
SEAQ4 13:2136Punt20–12
LACQ4 11:2810Turnover20–12
SEAQ4 11:20735Missed field goal20–12
LACQ4 7:261486Turnover on downs20–12
SEAQ4 2:0048End of half20–12

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna11/2119610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters16674.20
Jon Kitna6223.70
Shaun Alexander3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrell Jackson12681
Itula Mili35450
Sean Dawkins33370
Ricky Watters13140
Christian Fauria12130
Karsten Bailey13100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.48

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.