Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.074
- 42.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.195EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.061
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 41.2%Third-down rate36.8%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.35
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%
- +0.092EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:15 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 7:03 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 5:17 | 10 | 43 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 1:16 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SF | Q2 11:05 | 9 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q2 7:02 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| SF | Q2 6:05 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| DAL | Q2 2:49 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| SF | Q2 1:42 | 7 | 33 | End of half | 17–10 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| DAL | Q3 13:14 | 2 | -5 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| SF | Q3 12:12 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| DAL | Q3 10:43 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 27–10 |
| SF | Q3 8:50 | 17 | 103 | Touchdown | 34–10 |
| DAL | Q4 14:15 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 34–17 |
| SF | Q4 11:08 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 41–17 |
| SF | Q4 4:05 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 41–17 |
| DAL | Q4 4:05 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 41–24 |
| SF | Q4 3:23 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 41–24 |
| DAL | Q4 3:18 | 4 | -7 | Turnover | 41–24 |
| SF | Q4 2:06 | 4 | 9 | End of half | 41–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/26 | 178 | 4 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 36 | 201 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Jonas Lewis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 7 | 73 | 2 |
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 10 | 51 | 2 |
| Charlie Garner | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 15/26 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
| Clint Stoerner | 3/5 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 6 | 9 | 129 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 4 | 32 | 2 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Brazzell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.59