Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
55
Model margin
+0.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 21/35 | 255 | 1 | 2 |
| Danny Kanell | 1/3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Ron Rivers | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Kelly | 4 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 8 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 5 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.