Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
55
Model margin
+0.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:46 | 5 | 20 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:52 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 10:52 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:35 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 6:33 | 7 | -8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:59 | 11 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 13:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 11:50 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 8:32 | 10 | 67 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 2:37 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| ATL | Q2 2:14 | 11 | 43 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| ATL | Q3 14:04 | 4 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 24–13 |
| LA | Q3 11:58 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–13 |
| ATL | Q3 11:58 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| LA | Q3 11:44 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 27–13 |
| ATL | Q3 9:33 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 27–13 |
| LA | Q3 6:39 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 27–13 |
| ATL | Q3 1:37 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 27–13 |
| LA | Q4 12:50 | 3 | 88 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| ATL | Q4 11:55 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| LA | Q4 9:36 | 1 | 66 | Touchdown | 41–20 |
| ATL | Q4 9:15 | 5 | 32 | Turnover | 41–20 |
| LA | Q4 7:02 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 41–20 |
| ATL | Q4 1:52 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 41–20 |
| LA | Q4 1:13 | 2 | -3 | End of half | 41–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 21/35 | 255 | 1 | 2 |
| Danny Kanell | 1/3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Ron Rivers | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Kelly | 4 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 8 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 5 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.