2000 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.016
- 41.1%Success rate40.1%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- 39.0%Third-down rate39.9%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.30Points / drive1.73
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 11:33 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 7:36 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 4:36 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 0:49 | 7 | 92 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q2 12:33 | 7 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 9:57 | 5 | 58 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| NYG | Q2 6:27 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| WAS | Q2 5:16 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NYG | Q2 2:21 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 10–0 |
| WAS | Q2 0:52 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 10–0 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 81 | Touchdown | 16–0 |
| NYG | Q3 13:06 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 16–0 |
| WAS | Q3 10:51 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–0 |
| NYG | Q3 9:54 | 11 | 35 | Punt | 16–0 |
| WAS | Q3 4:21 | 10 | 68 | Missed field goal | 16–0 |
| NYG | Q4 12:58 | 10 | 57 | Turnover | 16–0 |
| WAS | Q4 8:56 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 16–0 |
| NYG | Q4 4:30 | 14 | 86 | Touchdown | 16–6 |
| WAS | Q4 2:25 | 6 | 3 | End of half | 16–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 14/20 | 289 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 30 | 89 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 4 | 4 | 122 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/44 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 7 | 13 | 85 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.06