2000 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.016
- 41.1%Success rate40.1%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- 39.0%Third-down rate39.9%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.30Points / drive1.73
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 14/20 | 289 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 30 | 89 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 4 | 4 | 122 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/44 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 7 | 13 | 85 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.06