Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play+0.086
- 39.0%Success rate42.2%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.195
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.04Points / drive1.90
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed+0.092
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:25 | 3 | 6 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:12 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 2:28 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 0:54 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:52 | 5 | 36 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 12:07 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 10:08 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 5:25 | 7 | 64 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:53 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 1:43 | 4 | 23 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| ARI | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| SF | Q2 0:18 | 3 | 20 | End of half | 10–17 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q3 13:45 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 10–17 |
| SF | Q3 12:18 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| ARI | Q3 6:13 | 8 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| SF | Q3 2:42 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–24 |
| ARI | Q3 0:46 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| SF | Q3 0:05 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| ARI | Q4 12:18 | 13 | 71 | Field goal | 13–27 |
| SF | Q4 6:45 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 13–27 |
| ARI | Q4 3:30 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| SF | Q4 2:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–27 |
| ARI | Q4 0:16 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 24/41 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 5 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/33 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.09