Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play+0.086
- 39.0%Success rate42.2%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.195
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.04Points / drive1.90
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed+0.092
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 24/41 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 5 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/33 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.09