Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.193EPA / play-0.003
- 37.5%Success rate40.3%
- -0.176EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.138
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- 29.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.06Points / drive1.62
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 14/34 | 151 | 0 | 1 |
| Danny Kanell | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 19 | 47 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 30/44 | 311 | 2 | 1 |
| Torrance Small | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 105 | 52.5 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 4 | 7 | 122 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 7 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 6 | 12 | 47 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.59