2000 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

10·38

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 68°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapEagles
  • -0.193EPA / play-0.003
  • 37.5%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.176EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.225EPA / rush-0.138
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.62
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00831Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 10:35510Punt0–3
PHIQ1 7:47531Turnover0–3
ATLQ1 5:07511Punt0–3
PHIQ1 2:5741Punt0–3
ATLQ1 1:39418Turnover0–3
PHIQ2 14:541042Turnover0–3
ATLQ2 9:5839Punt0–3
PHIQ2 8:0146Punt0–3
ATLQ2 6:2039Punt0–3
PHIQ2 4:471574Field goal0–6
ATLQ2 0:091-2End of half0–6
ATLQ3 15:0034Punt0–6
PHIQ3 13:5015Turnover0–6
ATLQ3 13:383-8Punt0–6
PHIQ3 12:12492Touchdown0–14
ATLQ3 11:24932Punt0–14
PHIQ3 6:0233Opp touchdown7–14
ATLQ3 4:5100Opp touchdown7–14
PHIQ3 4:51747Field goal7–17
ATLQ3 0:0037Punt7–17
PHIQ4 13:24985Touchdown7–24
ATLQ4 8:39521Field goal10–30
PHIQ4 6:4210Touchdown10–31
ATLQ4 6:261571Turnover on downs10–37
PHIQ4 2:03185Touchdown10–38
ATLQ4 1:52318End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler14/3415101
Danny Kanell1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Anderson19472.50
Maurice Smith2136.50
Chris Chandler111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Dwight37550
Shawn Jefferson48430
Terance Mathis410330
Maurice Smith1150
Jamal Anderson0100
Jammi German0100
Reggie Kelly0300
Brian Kozlowski0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb30/4431121
Torrance Small0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Mitchell210552.51
Donovan McNabb66110.20
Duce Staley11282.50
Charles Johnson111.00
Cecil Martin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrance Small471221
Chad Lewis710520
Charles Johnson612471
Brian Mitchell33350
Cecil Martin22220
Todd Pinkston11110
Luther Broughton2280
Jeff Thomason1160
Na Brown1240
Duce Staley3340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.59