Closing spread
BAL -8.5
Total
37
Model margin
-1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.217
- 40.2%Success rate31.8%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.234
- 8.4%Explosive rate5.5%
- 40.7%Third-down rate28.6%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.45Points / drive0.78
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:08 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:48 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 9:51 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 6:57 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 5:56 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 5:42 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 2:30 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| CLE | Q2 11:25 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| BAL | Q2 11:09 | 3 | 10 | Field goal | 9–0 |
| CLE | Q2 9:12 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 9–0 |
| BAL | Q2 6:45 | 8 | 61 | Missed field goal | 9–0 |
| CLE | Q2 2:50 | 6 | 57 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| BAL | Q2 1:05 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 9–0 |
| CLE | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 9–0 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 18 | 76 | Field goal | 12–0 |
| CLE | Q3 4:56 | 13 | 66 | Turnover | 12–0 |
| BAL | Q4 13:28 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 12–0 |
| CLE | Q4 12:30 | 10 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 12–0 |
| BAL | Q4 8:14 | 17 | 104 | End of half | 12–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 18/34 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 20/35 | 203 | 0 | 3 |
| Doug Pederson | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 7 | 12 | 113 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.40