Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+4.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.144EPA / play-0.010
- 38.4%Success rate40.2%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.076
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- 29.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 35.6%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 0.80Points / drive1.67
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 11/20 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 24 | 72 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 52 | 52.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 126 | 2 |
| John Allred | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 31/48 | 333 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 8 | 10 | 108 | 2 |
| Bubba Franks | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Charles Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.72