2000 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Cade McNown

27·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

41

Model margin

+4.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.144EPA / play-0.010
  • 38.4%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.076
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 35.6%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
  • 0.80Points / drive1.67
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.033

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 14:40517Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 12:1850Punt7–0
CHIQ1 9:5832Punt7–0
GBQ1 8:2231Punt7–0
CHIQ1 7:22454Field goal10–0
GBQ1 4:38322Turnover10–0
CHIQ1 3:0246Punt10–0
GBQ1 1:0039Punt10–0
CHIQ2 14:533-1Punt10–0
GBQ2 13:5166Punt10–0
CHIQ2 10:34380Touchdown17–0
GBQ2 9:07734Field goal17–3
CHIQ2 4:4838Punt17–3
GBQ2 2:28316Turnover17–3
CHIQ2 1:31627Missed field goal17–3
CHIQ3 15:0034Punt17–3
GBQ3 13:31415Punt17–3
CHIQ3 10:54999Touchdown24–3
GBQ3 5:35671Touchdown24–10
CHIQ3 2:3639Punt24–10
GBQ3 0:1837Punt24–10
CHIQ4 14:043-2Punt24–10
GBQ4 12:39982Touchdown24–17
CHIQ4 8:441061Field goal27–17
GBQ4 3:15768Touchdown27–24
CHIQ4 1:5847Punt27–24
GBQ4 1:19833Turnover on downs27–24
CHIQ4 0:071-1End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cade McNown11/2020320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen24723.00
Eddie Kennison15252.00
Cade McNown10515.11
Curtis Enis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson231262
John Allred46280
Eddie Kennison11210
Marty Booker24150
Alonzo Mayes1470
Curtis Enis1160
James Allen0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre31/4833331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dorsey Levens11242.20
Ahman Green3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bill Schroeder8101082
Bubba Franks58540
Donald Driver35430
Ahman Green58410
Dorsey Levens57410
Antonio Freeman35321
Charles Lee0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.72