Closing spread
CAR -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.057
- 41.5%Success rate40.9%
- -0.085EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.120
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- 36.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate37.3%
- 1.35Points / drive1.31
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 12:49 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:02 | 7 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:37 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 5:36 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 4:09 | 12 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 12:46 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 8:38 | 4 | 10 | Safety | 2–7 |
| DAL | Q2 7:13 | 9 | 42 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q2 2:34 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 13:48 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q3 13:01 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 12:07 | 13 | 73 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| CAR | Q3 4:13 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| DAL | Q4 12:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–13 |
| CAR | Q4 10:43 | 9 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 13–13 |
| DAL | Q4 6:25 | 10 | 48 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| CAR | Q4 1:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DAL | Q4 0:23 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–13 |
| DAL | OT | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 15/23 | 131 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 24 | 132 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 17/29 | 161 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.25