Closing spread
MIA -7
Total
33
Model margin
-0.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.157
- 38.4%Success rate34.1%
- +0.081EPA / dropback-0.180
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- 34.3%Third-down rate34.8%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
- 1.52Points / drive0.82
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.111EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–6 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 8:05 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 6:06 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q1 0:46 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q1 0:00 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q2 13:13 | 8 | 75 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| CIN | Q2 8:32 | 11 | 60 | Punt | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q2 4:17 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| CIN | Q2 0:56 | 2 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q2 0:00 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| CIN | Q3 7:15 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–13 |
| MIA | Q3 6:12 | 4 | 15 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| CIN | Q3 4:39 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 24–13 |
| MIA | Q3 0:52 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 31–13 |
| CIN | Q4 12:26 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 31–16 |
| MIA | Q4 7:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 31–16 |
| CIN | Q4 5:47 | 14 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 31–16 |
| MIA | Q4 2:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 31–16 |
| CIN | Q4 1:38 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 31–16 |
| MIA | Q4 0:40 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 31–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 14/21 | 155 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 6 | 6 | 73 | 2 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 20/38 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony McGee | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04