2000 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

31·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.143
  • 44.7%Success rate36.6%
  • +0.184EPA / dropback-0.141
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.146
  • 10.6%Explosive rate6.7%
  • 46.0%Third-down rate31.8%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
  • 2.14Points / drive1.23
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
MINQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:50642Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 11:05479Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 8:4639Punt7–7
MINQ1 7:0139Punt7–7
DETQ1 5:20311Punt7–7
MINQ1 3:59735—7–7
MINQ200Punt7–7
MINQ2 15:0010Punt7–7
DETQ2 14:471042Punt7–7
MINQ2 9:1337Punt7–7
DETQ2 6:46637Field goal7–10
MINQ2 4:0833Punt7–10
DETQ2 3:0233Punt7–10
MINQ2 2:00977Field goal10–10
DETQ2 0:0300End of half10–10
DETQ3 15:001036Missed field goal10–10
MINQ3 8:4832Punt10–10
DETQ3 7:52513Punt10–10
MINQ3 5:04865Touchdown17–10
DETQ3 0:14864Touchdown17–17
MINQ4 12:09784Touchdown24–17
DETQ4 8:48631Turnover on downs30–17
MINQ4 6:35165Touchdown31–17
DETQ4 6:2310Turnover31–17
MINQ4 6:061021Turnover on downs31–17
DETQ4 1:381167Touchdown31–24
MINQ4 0:031-2End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper17/2926930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Smith161348.41
Daunte Culpepper7294.10
Moe Williams4123.00
Jimmy Kleinsasser144.00
Randy Moss1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss791683
John Davis47340
Cris Carter38300
Robert Smith22190
Chris Walsh11180
Matt Hatchette0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch25/4423911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart201236.20
Charlie Batch155.01
Mario Bates410.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germane Crowell814851
Johnnie Morton69500
Mario Bates33370
Brock Olivo12190
James Stewart22160
Herman Moore25150
David Sloan14120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.55