Closing spread
DET -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.143
- 44.7%Success rate36.6%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.146
- 10.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- 46.0%Third-down rate31.8%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 2.14Points / drive1.23
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 17/29 | 269 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 16 | 134 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 7 | 9 | 168 | 3 |
| John Davis | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 3 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 25/44 | 239 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 20 | 123 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mario Bates | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 8 | 14 | 85 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 6 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Brock Olivo | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.55