Closing spread
DEN -8.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.086
- 38.3%Success rate45.4%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.025
- 5.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- 35.1%Third-down rate44.1%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.30Points / drive1.79
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/27 | 271 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Michael Bishop | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 5 | 6 | 108 | 2 |
| Terry Glenn | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 31/50 | 361 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 13 | 19 | 160 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 9 | 15 | 91 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 1 | 1 | 43 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.15