2000 · Week 5

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

28·19

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Mile High Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -8.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.086
  • 38.3%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.025
  • 5.5%Explosive rate9.9%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.79
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
  • +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.030

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
DENQ1 15:00410Turnover0–0
NEQ1 12:55429Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:48416Punt7–0
NEQ1 9:17371Touchdown14–0
DENQ1 7:59414Punt14–0
NEQ1 6:22515Punt14–0
DENQ1 3:351583Field goal14–3
NEQ2 10:3337Punt14–3
DENQ2 8:3831Punt14–3
NEQ2 7:41427Punt14–3
DENQ2 5:22728Punt14–3
NEQ2 2:27965Touchdown21–3
DENQ2 0:25338End of half21–3
NEQ3 15:002-1Turnover21–3
DENQ3 14:00637Turnover on downs21–3
NEQ3 11:03519Punt21–3
DENQ3 8:05414Punt21–3
NEQ3 6:424-10Safety21–11
DENQ3 5:1400Touchdown21–11
NEQ3 4:56872Touchdown28–11
DENQ3 0:43951Turnover28–11
NEQ4 12:0135Punt28–11
DENQ4 10:251137Missed field goal28–11
NEQ4 6:20618Punt28–11
DENQ4 3:47876Touchdown28–19
NEQ4 1:563-3End of half28–19

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe18/2727141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk9404.40
J.R. Redmond6152.50
Michael Bishop200.00
Tony Carter1-1-1.00
Drew Bledsoe4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown561082
Terry Glenn69761
Kevin Faulk12260
Eric Bjornson23200
J.R. Redmond22171
Chris Calloway12130
Tony Simmons11110

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese31/5036111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Griese6294.80
Mike Anderson6264.30
Terrell Davis9242.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith13191600
Ed McCaffrey915910
Travis McGriff11431
Byron Chamberlain23350
Mike Anderson1160
Desmond Clark1240
Howard Griffith1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.15