Closing spread
JAX -11
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.010
- 38.6%Success rate41.4%
- -0.014EPA / dropback+0.066
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- 37.4%Third-down rate42.8%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.37Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.119EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:37 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:25 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 9:57 | 4 | 5 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 7:56 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 6:10 | 12 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q1 0:41 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PIT | Q2 11:51 | 9 | 79 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 6:52 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| PIT | Q2 6:35 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| JAX | Q2 3:13 | 12 | 33 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| PIT | Q2 0:31 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 17–6 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 17–6 |
| JAX | Q3 12:26 | 8 | 15 | Punt | 17–6 |
| PIT | Q3 8:25 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| JAX | Q3 4:27 | 8 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 24–6 |
| PIT | Q3 0:40 | 9 | 36 | Turnover | 24–6 |
| JAX | Q4 10:44 | 5 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 24–6 |
| PIT | Q4 8:49 | 6 | 33 | Turnover | 24–6 |
| JAX | Q4 5:06 | 1 | -10 | Turnover | 24–6 |
| PIT | Q4 4:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–6 |
| JAX | Q4 3:39 | 15 | 90 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| PIT | Q4 0:09 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 10/16 | 132 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 28 | 97 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Kordell Stewart | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 15/32 | 137 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamie Martin | 8/13 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 15 | 24 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 11 | 17 | 137 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 2 | 12 | 20 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.96