Closing spread
KC -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.025
- 40.0%Success rate41.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.123
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.159
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- 40.9%Third-down rate36.7%
- 52.9%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.33Points / drive1.42
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.074EPA / play allowed+0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. KC are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 47 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 10:34 | 17 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:34 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q2 14:49 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:17 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 6:59 | 13 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| KC | Q2 0:48 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q2 0:05 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 14–7 |
| KC | Q3 11:39 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q3 10:05 | 8 | 63 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| KC | Q3 6:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q3 4:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–7 |
| KC | Q3 3:27 | 3 | 95 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| SEA | Q3 2:15 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 17–14 |
| KC | Q3 0:03 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| SEA | Q4 11:42 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| KC | Q4 10:03 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| SEA | Q4 8:03 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 17–17 |
| KC | Q4 6:08 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| SEA | Q4 4:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–24 |
| KC | Q4 2:46 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 17–24 |
| SEA | Q4 0:40 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| KC | Q4 0:21 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 17/28 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 16 | 97 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 11 | 74 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 16/27 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 5 | 8 | 153 | 1 |
| Sylvester Morris | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.91