2000 · Week 5

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

17·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

WAS -1.5

Total

36

Model margin

+2.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.027
  • 39.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.148
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.30
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.093

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–WAS
WASQ1 15:00720Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:59610Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:233-2Punt0–0
TBQ1 6:1048Turnover0–0
WASQ1 4:052-9Turnover0–0
TBQ1 3:54522Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 1:3836Punt7–0
TBQ1 0:0134Punt7–0
WASQ2 14:04561Punt7–0
TBQ2 12:01621Punt7–0
WASQ2 9:0037Punt7–0
TBQ2 7:34512Punt7–0
WASQ2 5:07485Touchdown7–7
TBQ2 3:1438Punt7–7
WASQ2 2:06727Punt7–7
TBQ2 0:432-10End of half7–7
TBQ3 15:003-2Punt7–7
WASQ3 13:23958Field goal7–10
TBQ3 7:513-1Punt7–10
WASQ3 6:0536Punt7–10
TBQ3 4:361362Missed field goal7–10
WASQ4 13:3336Punt7–10
TBQ4 11:583-2Punt7–10
WASQ4 10:3737Punt7–10
TBQ4 8:2027Turnover7–10
WASQ4 7:33626Touchdown7–17
TBQ4 3:57769Touchdown14–17
WASQ4 2:00421Missed field goal14–17
TBQ4 0:43546Field goal17–17
WASOT35Punt17–17
TBOT31Punt17–17
WASOT36Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King19/3820211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun King3237.70
Warrick Dunn1030.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dave Moore47470
Reidel Anthony13461
Keyshawn Johnson68420
Warrick Dunn48360
Patrick Hape23120
Jacquez Green1870

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson20/3220710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis281415.01
Brad Johnson221.00
Adrian Murrell100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Irving Fryar46610
Albert Connell13470
Stephen Alexander33280
Adrian Murrell1160
Stephen Davis1550
James Thrash1140
Mike Sellers1130
Andre Reed0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.30