2000 · Week 5
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
36
Model margin
+2.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.027
- 39.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.148
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- 33.9%Third-down rate39.0%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.46Points / drive1.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.093
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 19/38 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Moore | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/32 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 28 | 141 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irving Fryar | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.30