2000 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

15·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJaguars
  • -0.056EPA / play+0.010
  • 40.2%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.066
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 36.0%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.87
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–JAX
BALQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:44736Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:4127Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 9:0032Field goal0–3
BALQ1 8:04413Punt0–3
JAXQ1 6:28420Punt0–3
BALQ1 3:47634Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 1:2300Punt3–3
BALQ1 1:003-3Punt3–3
JAXQ1 0:131667Missed field goal3–3
BALQ2 7:2931Punt3–3
JAXQ2 6:06417Punt3–3
BALQ2 4:1731Punt3–3
JAXQ2 2:46538Turnover3–3
BALQ2 1:4935Punt3–3
JAXQ2 1:1619Turnover3–3
BALQ2 1:02419Field goal6–3
JAXQ2 0:2110End of half6–3
JAXQ3 15:0022Turnover6–3
BALQ3 14:123-1Field goal9–3
JAXQ3 12:37523Punt9–3
BALQ3 9:38827Punt9–3
JAXQ3 7:053-2Punt9–3
BALQ3 6:021565Field goal12–3
JAXQ4 13:3826Turnover12–3
BALQ4 12:4831Punt12–3
JAXQ4 11:47215Turnover12–3
BALQ4 10:5541Field goal15–3
JAXQ4 9:441279Touchdown15–10
BALQ4 4:0433Punt15–10
JAXQ4 2:44836Turnover15–10
BALQ4 0:532-2End of half15–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks17/3915400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis17442.60
Obafemi Ayanbadejo284.00
Tony Banks362.00
Jermaine Lewis144.00
Priest Holmes2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail914850
Shannon Sharpe14260
Jermaine Lewis26190
Obafemi Ayanbadejo46170
Travis Taylor1470
Ben Coates0200
Priest Holmes0100
Jamal Lewis0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell18/2816702
Jamie Martin11/159301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor17543.21
Mark Brunell8324.00
Anthony Johnson177.00
Jamie Martin122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith810950
Keenan McCardell811630
Kyle Brady56450
Fred Taylor79450
Alvis Whitted0100
R.Jay Soward0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.94