Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.010
- 40.2%Success rate41.4%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.066
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 40.7%Third-down rate42.8%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.45Points / drive1.87
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 17/39 | 154 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 9 | 14 | 85 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 18/28 | 167 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamie Martin | 11/15 | 93 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jamie Martin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 10 | 95 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 8 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94