Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/40 | 235 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Raymont Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 10 | 15 | 71 | 2 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 6 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Raymont Harris | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.