Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:15 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:05 | 7 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:57 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:30 | 10 | 17 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:01 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:12 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:27 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q2 8:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 7:51 | 6 | 35 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q2 4:54 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 3:32 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 0:52 | 6 | 38 | End of half | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q3 13:50 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q3 11:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q3 9:53 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q3 8:26 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q3 8:12 | 4 | 24 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 6:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q3 4:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 2:46 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q3 1:18 | 13 | 40 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q4 11:00 | 13 | 47 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q4 6:22 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q4 2:15 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q4 1:38 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| LAC | Q4 1:25 | 7 | 52 | End of half | 21–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/40 | 235 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Raymont Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 10 | 15 | 71 | 2 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 6 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Raymont Harris | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.