Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.143
- 40.2%Success rate36.6%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.146
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- 38.8%Third-down rate31.8%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 1.67Points / drive1.23
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 27/43 | 293 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 12 | 98 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 8 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Herbert Goodman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 13/26 | 199 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 3 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 5 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Herman Moore | 1 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Germane Crowell | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.78