2000 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

24·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

43

Model margin

+1.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • -0.010EPA / play-0.143
  • 40.2%Success rate36.6%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback-0.141
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.146
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.7%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate31.8%
  • 53.5%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.23
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.033EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
GBQ1 15:0034Turnover0–0
DETQ1 13:2339Field goal0–3
GBQ1 11:2340Punt0–9
DETQ1 9:32142Touchdown0–10
GBQ1 9:2538Punt0–10
DETQ1 7:47311Punt0–10
GBQ1 6:461165—0–10
GBQ200Field goal0–10
GBQ2 15:0010Field goal3–10
DETQ2 14:503-5Punt3–10
GBQ2 13:023-8Punt3–10
DETQ2 11:40425Touchdown3–17
GBQ2 10:03414Punt3–17
DETQ2 7:1726Turnover3–17
GBQ2 6:35516Turnover3–17
DETQ2 4:17512Punt3–17
GBQ2 1:4820Opp touchdown3–24
DETQ2 1:3300Opp touchdown3–24
GBQ2 1:33537Field goal6–24
DETQ2 0:091-1End of half6–24
DETQ3 15:0038Punt6–24
GBQ3 13:191168Field goal9–24
DETQ3 7:19575Touchdown9–31
GBQ3 4:39748Touchdown17–31
DETQ3 1:19936Punt17–31
GBQ4 11:27987Touchdown24–31
DETQ4 7:1534Punt24–31
GBQ4 5:4020Turnover24–31
DETQ4 4:57922Punt24–31
GBQ4 1:5110Turnover24–31
DETQ4 1:3739End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre27/4329323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green22693.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman612981
Ahman Green89760
Charles Lee23460
Donald Driver24270
Bubba Franks34180
Bill Schroeder0100
Ryan Wetnight0300
Herbert Goodman1100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch13/2619931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart20562.80
Germane Crowell11212.00
Charlie Batch263.00
Mario Bates100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton36731
James Stewart57671
Herman Moore12301
Germane Crowell39210
Mario Bates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.78