Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.123EPA / play-0.079
- 45.8%Success rate38.3%
- +0.249EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.195
- 9.0%Explosive rate5.5%
- 46.8%Third-down rate35.1%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 2.04Points / drive1.30
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.005EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/54 | 334 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 75 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 13 | 15 | 159 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 6 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 6 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/23 | 142 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Bishop | 1/1 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Michael Bishop | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 5 | 9 | 51 | 1 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.27