Closing spread
CHI -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.144
- 42.1%Success rate38.4%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.156
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- 42.9%Third-down rate29.8%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
- 1.53Points / drive0.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.071EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/25 | 232 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 30 | 128 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 4 | 9 | 78 | 2 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 18/37 | 202 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| James Allen | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 8 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 2 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| James Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.49