2000 · Week 6

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jeff Blake

31·10

Bears

Chicago

QB Cade McNown

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CHI -5.5

Total

40

Model margin

-0.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBears
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.144
  • 42.1%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.156
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.1%
  • 42.9%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
  • 1.53Points / drive0.80
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.071EPA / play allowed-0.018

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CHI
NOQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:2133Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:5337Opp touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:4100Opp touchdown0–7
NOQ1 10:41619Punt0–7
CHIQ1 6:3044Missed field goal0–7
NOQ1 5:171480Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 13:26526Punt7–7
NOQ2 11:12884Touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 6:4836Turnover14–7
NOQ2 5:38827Field goal17–7
CHIQ2 1:52934Turnover on downs17–7
NOQ2 0:141-1End of half17–7
CHIQ3 15:003-5Punt17–7
NOQ3 13:18417Punt17–7
CHIQ3 11:04418Punt17–7
NOQ3 9:0539Punt17–7
CHIQ3 8:013-3Punt17–7
NOQ3 6:48976Touchdown24–7
CHIQ3 2:21859Field goal24–10
NOQ4 13:231190Touchdown31–10
CHIQ4 7:51716Turnover31–10
NOQ4 5:4534Punt31–10
CHIQ4 4:0545Turnover on downs31–10
NOQ4 3:263-3Punt31–10
CHIQ4 2:26982Turnover31–10
NOQ4 0:141-1End of half31–10

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake18/2523231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams301284.31
Jeff Blake12665.50
Aaron Brooks3-2-0.70
Joe Horn1-3-3.00
Chad Morton3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn49782
Ricky Williams44570
Keith Poole44300
Andrew Glover11291
Willie Jackson13140
Jake Reed1160

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cade McNown18/3720203

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cade McNown5489.60
James Allen10242.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Kennison812890
Marty Booker37440
Macey Brooks27330
D'Wayne Bates23180
Kaseem Sinceno22160
John Allred1220
James Allen0200
Glyn Milburn0100
Dez White0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.49