Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
42
Model margin
-1.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.193
- 40.1%Success rate37.5%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.176
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.225
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.1%
- 39.9%Third-down rate29.3%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.73Points / drive1.06
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.015
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/25 | 151 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 15/35 | 166 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 8/12 | 89 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 12 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 5 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 11 | 25 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.03