2000 · Week 6

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

13·6

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

42

Model margin

-1.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.016EPA / play-0.193
  • 40.1%Success rate37.5%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback-0.176
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.225
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.1%
  • 39.9%Third-down rate29.3%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.06
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.015

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 8–6 since 1999

ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NYG @ ATL7–34ATL
2021 · W3ATL @ NYG17–14ATL
2018 · W7NYG @ ATL20–23ATL
2015 · W2ATL @ NYG24–20ATL
2014 · W5ATL @ NYG20–30NYG
2012 · W15NYG @ ATL0–34ATL
2011 · playoffsATL @ NYG2–24NYG
2009 · W11ATL @ NYG31–34NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ATL
NYGQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:27726Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 10:07854Turnover7–0
NYGQ1 4:47852Field goal10–0
ATLQ1 0:08923Punt10–0
NYGQ2 10:23413Punt10–0
ATLQ2 7:38618Field goal10–3
NYGQ2 5:2523Turnover10–3
ATLQ2 4:2839Missed field goal10–3
NYGQ2 2:43855Field goal13–3
ATLQ3 15:001160Field goal13–6
NYGQ3 9:22744Punt13–6
ATLQ3 5:19418Punt13–6
NYGQ3 4:3233Punt13–6
ATLQ3 2:5537Punt13–6
NYGQ3 1:1536Punt13–6
ATLQ4 14:532-1Turnover13–6
NYGQ4 14:0832Punt13–6
ATLQ4 12:42812Punt13–6
NYGQ4 8:4910Turnover13–6
ATLQ4 8:3645Punt13–6
NYGQ4 7:15839Punt13–6
ATLQ4 3:401133Turnover on downs13–6
NYGQ4 1:323-2End of half13–6

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins14/2515102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber14503.60
Ron Dayne12312.61
Ike Hilliard11717.00
Kerry Collins451.30
Greg Comella210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tiki Barber55500
Greg Comella44430
Ike Hilliard24250
Amani Toomer16170
Ron Dixon1290
Joe Jurevicius1270
Dan Campbell0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Danny Kanell15/3516601
Chris Chandler8/128901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Anderson12121.00
Tim Dwight210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shawn Jefferson510720
Reggie Kelly46490
Brian Kozlowski33440
Terance Mathis311250
Jamal Anderson12120
Jammi German11100
Tim Dwight1310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.03