Closing spread
NYJ -8
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.073
- 38.6%Success rate39.6%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.37Points / drive1.29
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.119EPA / play allowed-0.101
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 12:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:47 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:18 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 6:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:34 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 1:13 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:00 | 13 | 59 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q2 8:41 | 14 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:40 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 10–3 |
| PIT | Q3 11:42 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 10–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:50 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| PIT | Q3 7:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:27 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 10–3 |
| PIT | Q3 3:18 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:33 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| PIT | Q4 10:09 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:01 | 1 | 7 | — | 20–3 |
| PIT | Q4 2:23 | 1 | 2 | — | 20–3 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–3 |
| PIT | Q4 2:00 | 4 | 25 | End of half | 20–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 17/26 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 25 | 107 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Edwards | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Cory Geason | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 13/25 | 99 | 0 | 2 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 12 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.65
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.27